Sara Cincotti and Davide Rossi

Introduction

Migration and asylum policy remains one of the most contested and salient issues in European politics, shaping debates on solidarity, security, and the EU’s identity as a rights-based community. Over the past decade, repeated crises – from the 2015 refugee flows to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have tested the resilience of Member States’ asylum systems and exposed persistent weaknesses, calling into question the Union’s cohesion.

Against this backdrop, the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) has emerged as a crucial actor, providing data, expertise, and operational support. The newly published 2025 Asylum Report and Mid-Year Review, presented by EUAA Executive Director Nina Gregori to the European Parliament’s LIBE Committee last week, come at a pivotal juncture. The findings feed directly into the Commission’s ongoing monitoring of the Migration and Asylum Pact, with the next implementation report due in October – a key milestone toward full application.

Europe’s Asylum Landscape in 2025

Since the 2015–2016 refugee crisis, when over a million migrants and asylum seekers entered the EU, applications have fluctuated sharply. Numbers fell after 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions and climbed back to around one million annually between 2022 and 2024. In the first half of 2025, however, claims dropped to 400.000, a 23% decrease compared to 2024. Irregular arrivals at external borders also fell by 20%. This overall decline has not eased pressure, as EU systems continue to host over four million displaced Ukrainians under temporary protection.

For the first time in over a decade, Syrians were no longer the top nationality of applicants, whose applications collapsed after Assad’s ousting in late 2024. Venezuelans and Afghans now lead the statistics, with Syrians in third place. France and Spain overtook Germany as the top receiving countries, while Greece and Cyprus recorded the highest per capita rates.  

Recognition rates also fell: 25% EU-wide, compared to 40% in recent years. Gregori noted that “this shift does not really reflect stricter qualifications for granting international protection” but it reflects Member States pausing Syrian claims for a new security review, while many Syrians withdraw applications to return home.

This evolving landscape poses serious challenges for national systems. Gregori underlined that “the two greater challenges faced by Member States were the shifts in migration patterns leading [them] to adapt their response quite fast”, with Courts following accelerated procedures and strained reception facilities.  Meanwhile, concerns about the instrumentalisation of migration by third countries continue to complicate the EU’s external approach.

The EUAA and the Migration and Asylum Pact

The Asylum Report highlights the central role of the EUAA in supporting the Migration and Asylum Pact, expected to fully apply from June 2026. While the Commission provides the strategic vision, the Agency provides the operational and technical linchpin. This division of labour is embedded in the new five-year European Migration and Asylum Strategy to harmonise approaches.

Gregori stressed the EUAA’s broad mandate: reviewing Member States’ contingency plans, training more than 4,000 experts, drafting practical guidelines on specific issues, and developing practical tools to implement under Dublin procedures. Importantly, she reminded MEPs that “the full monitoring mandate will come into place with the Pact implementation but” the EUAA is “not the guardian of the Dublin III Regulation.”

Political Reactions to the Report

The presentation of the Report to the MEPs in the LIBE Committee sparked heated debate. 

Several MEPs from the centre-right highlighted the decline in irregular crossings along the Mediterranean and Balkan routes, crediting closer cooperation with North African partners. They pushed Gregori on whether this model could be replicated in other regions and asked which obstacles Member States faced in adapting to the Pact’s new procedures.

Socialists and Democrats stressed that asylum is a right, urging caution against rhetoric that stokes hostility toward migrants. They highlighted the need for solidarity measures, including relocation pledges, and called for judicial training to ensure that shorter asylum timelines do not undermine fairness.

By contrast, far-right and Eurosceptic groups argued the system remained dysfunctional, pointing to high rejection rates and the presence of rejected applicants. Gregori firmly responded that the number of returns “is not a mandate of our agency, this is a mandate of Frontex, so I cannot comment on that.” Her clarification underscored the limits of EUAA’s role compared to other agencies. It was also underlined that many asylum seekers actually arrive through legal pathways, particularly from visa-free countries in Latin America.

Greens and progressive MEPs pressed for more legal migration pathways as a solution to reliance on irregular channels and smugglers. Others flagged the continuing weaknesses of the Dublin system, with only 17% of relocation decisions actually carried out in 2025. The debate revealed that, despite broad agreement on the need for reform, deep political divisions endure in Parliament, which likely reflect macro divisions among the EU’s member states.

Broader Implications for EU Policy

The report positions October 2025 as a decisive moment within a transitional phase, with the Pact’s ambitious requests demanding capacity upgrades. The Commission’s upcoming implementation report, combined with EUAA data, will set the tone for the final stage before the Pact’s entry into force in 2026.

Yet structural weaknesses remain unresolved: uneven recognition rates, a wavering Dublin system, and fragile solidarity mechanisms. The EU’s Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) recently flagged risks linked to stricter border procedures, accelerated deadlines, expanded biometric collection, and weaker safeguards. The central question is whether the EU can seize this moment to achieve deeper coordination, or whether persistent national divergences will again undermine its ambitions or, ultimately, its legal implementation.

Conclusion

The 2025 Asylum Report leaves no doubt – Europe’s asylum landscape is in flux: falling applications, declining recognition rates, changing demographics. Longstanding weaknesses – fragmented responses, weak solidarity, and uneven recognition – continue to haunt the system. As Europe approaches full implementation of the Migration and Asylum Pact in June 2026, the stakes are clear. Will stricter border procedures and shorter timelines compromise fairness, or can safeguards and harmonisation deliver a more coherent system? Can the Union bridge internal divides, or will national divergences erode cohesion?

Ultimately, the Report shows that Europe is at a turning point: the choices made in the coming year will shape not only migration management, but also the Union’s credibility as a community built on rights and solidarity.